Some Elements on Nuclear Energy

Xavier Timbeau
xavier.timbeau@sciencespo.fr

OFCE, Sciences Po Paris

Anissa Saumtally
anissa.saumtally@sciencespo.fr

OFCE, Sciences Po Paris

What do you know about nuclear energy?

Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)

LCOE is the ratio of the (discounted) production of electricity divided by the (discounted) sum of all costs (initial investment, operation and fuel cost, decommission)

From LCOE to final cost for households


Or industry


Levelized Cost of Energy

As it includes everything on the life cycle, comparison possible of different sources even with different lifespan

  • Sensitive to scenarios (price of fuels, labor, cost of capital)
  • Sensitive to important parameters like discount rate
    • A high discount rate favors immediate returns
    • A low discount rate favors long term returns
    • A high discount rate discounts highly distant costs (such as decommissioning)

The output of the formula represents power/heat generation cost per MWh

\[LCOE = \frac{\text{Total lifetime cost}}{\text{Total lifetime energy production} } = \frac{\sum_{t=1}^{n}\frac{I+FO\&M_t +VO\&M_t +F_t}{(1+r)^t} }{\sum_{t=1}^{n}\frac{E_t}{(1+r)^t} }\]

Where :

\(I\): Investment costs ; \(FO\&M_t\): Fixed operation and maintenance costs in the year \(t\) ; \(VO\&M_t\): Variable operation and maintenance costs in the year \(t\) ; \(F_t\): Fuel costs in the year \(t\) ; \(E_t\): Energy production in the year \(t\) ; \(r\): Discount rate ; \(n\): Expected asset lifetime

LCOE of main sources

LCOE from the US EIA

Nuclear Energy Cost

Capacity of Nuclear Energy

2024 2018 2018-2008
USA 103 GW 104 GW
France 64 GW 63 GW
China 58 GW 45 GW +36 GW
Japan 37 GW 37 GW
Russia 29 GW 29 GW +7.4 GW


  • Today, most new nuclear power plants are in China and are from a Russian design (AIE 2025)

  • Record of installed capacity will be reached in 2025 (high demand of electricity in the US/China)

  • 65 GW in China in 2025, more than France

LCOE evolution through time

RTE scenarii

RTE Production mix scenarios for 2050 for France
Source: RTE, Futurs énergétiques 2050 (2021)
Scenario Narrative Production
mix 2050
Installed capacity in 2050 (GW)
Flexibility
mix 2050
Solar Onshore
wind		 Offshore
wind		 Existing
nuclear		 New
nuclear
M0
100% EnR en 2050		 Nuclear phase-out by 2050: the decommissioning of existing nuclear reactors is accelerated, while the pace of development of photovoltaics, wind and marine energy is pushed to its maximum. 100% /
0%		 ~208 GW
(x21)
36%		 ~74 GW
(x4)
31%		 ~62 GW
21%		 0 GW
0%		 — 15 GW
1.7 GW
29 GW
26 GW
M1
Répartition diffuse		 Very large-scale development of renewable energies distributed diffusely across the national territory, largely driven by the photovoltaic sector. This growth requires strong mobilisation of local participatory actors and local authorities. 87% /
13%		 ~214 GW
(x22)
36%		 ~59 GW
(x3.5)
23%		 ~45 GW
17%		 16 GW
13%		 — 17 GW
1.7 GW
20 GW
21 GW
M23
EnR grands parcs		 Very large-scale development of all renewable energy sectors, driven notably by the installation of large onshore and offshore wind farms. Based on economic optimisation and targeting of technologies and areas with the best yields, enabling economies of scale. 87% /
13%		 ~125 GW
(x12)
22%		 ~72 GW
(x4)
32%		 ~60 GW
22%		 16 GW
13%		 — 15 GW
1.7 GW
20 GW
13 GW
N1
EnR + nouveau nucléaire 1		 Launch of a programme to build new reactors, developed in pairs on existing sites every 5 years from 2035. Sustained development of renewable energies to offset the decommissioning of second-generation reactors. 74% /
26%		 ~118 GW
(x11)
22%		 ~58 GW
(x3.3)
24%		 ~45 GW
13%		 16 GW
12%		 ~13 GW
(8 EPR)
14%		 15 GW
1.7 GW
11 GW
9 GW
N2
EnR + nouveau nucléaire 2		 Launch of a faster programme to build new reactors (one pair every 3 years) from 2035 with progressive ramp-up. Renewable energy development continues but at a slower pace than in the N1 and M scenarios. 63% /
38%		 ~90 GW
(x8.5)
17%		 ~52 GW
(x2.9)
20%		 ~36 GW
16%		 16 GW
14%		 ~23 GW
(14 EPR)
22%		 15 GW
1.7 GW
5 GW
2 GW
N03
EnR + nouveau nucléaire 3		 The production mix is based on equal shares of renewables and nuclear by 2050. This requires operating the existing nuclear fleet as long as possible, and proactively developing diversified new nuclear capacity (EPR 2 + SMR). 50% /
50%		 ~70 GW
(x7)
13%		 ~43 GW
(x2.5)
27%		 ~22 GW
13%		 24 GW
23%		 ~27 GW
(~14 EPR + quelques SMR)
27%		 13 GW
1.7 GW
1 GW
1 GW
Common assumptions: hydropower ~22 GW, marine energy 0–3 GW, bioenergy ~2 GW, imports 39 GW, pumped storage 8 GW
Flexibility mix: Demand flexibility  ·  Vehicle-to-grid  ·  Batteries  ·  Low-carbon thermal

Cost according to RTE

Including all sources, plus storage and demand management plus transportation

Nuclear Accident

Nuclear accident Fukushima 3/11/2011

  • 40m tsunami wave,
    • 3 reactors meltdowns of a quite old design power plant (1967 grid 1971)
  • 20 000 deaths estimated with the extrapolation (statistical) method
  • 4 direct deaths, 1 000 from evacuation stress
  • 330 000 evacuated (20km radius)
B€
Evacuation 50
Offsite decont. 25 to 51
Onsite Decont. 20
Emergency Power replacement 73
Loss of property 200

Forbes estimations - $500b+ estimated overall cost (direct and cleaning cost $15b, compensation $60b energy cost ($200b, may double), reconstruction cost $250b) (source Forbes)

Nuclear waste

Nuclear proliferation / technological lockdown

  • Initially nuclear reactors were developed to serve also nuclear bomb production
  • New nuclear technology are less related to military purpose
  • Current FR tech (EPR) locks in a specific technological path
    • Fast neutron tech could use 96% of latent energy in fr waste

Cost and delays of nuclear energy building cycle


  • Flamanville EPR (v1) is estimated to cost 12.1+6.7 (CC) b€ (from 3.3b€)
  • Planned for a grid output in 2012, expected mid 2024
    • output cost (selling price) reevaluated at 120€/MWh (initially 46€/MWh)
  • Olkiluoto 3 estimated at 11b€, 12 years delay (LCOE up to 90-140€/MWh)
  • Projected cost for future French EPR is 7 to 8 b€
  • Hinkley Point C : 90£/MWh
  • China EPR : cost around 7.5b€