CCCC.1: Consequences and Damages

Xavier Timbeau
xavier.timbeau@sciencespo.fr

OFCE, Sciences Po Paris

Anissa Saumtally
anissa.saumtally@sciencespo.fr

OFCE, Sciences Po Paris

Consequences and damages

An intoduction IPCC video

Consequences of Climate Change

  • 550 ppm CO2 (3.6W/m²) brings +32.5°C (global temp.) by 2100
  • unseen since a few million years
  • Large geographical variability (climate change is not global warming)
  • +2.5°C global means +5°C for France
  • Really warmer at the poles : +20°C
  • No more pole ice cap, less ocean large currents
  • Heat transportatrion will be modified
  • Events like
    • #tempests, strenght of tempest
    • #days with extreme temp,
    • #consecutive dry days,
    • #consecutive wet days, extreme rainfall,
    • extreme cold may become more probable(at least in the short term)
  • Models are still uncertain
    • giving very different results either because of chaos or model error

From global to local

  • Basically depends on latitude (higer change on the poles)

Some consequences can be anticipated

  • Higher CO2 lower pH of oceans
    • Plancton (the one we know) is very sensitive to pH : mass extinction of plancton
    • Or adaptation if plancton is fast enough
    • Mass extinction higher in the food chain

  • Massive consequences on agriculture
    • Globaly lower yield
    • Localy more complex : from collapse to adpation, positive in some places
    • Early report for French Agriculture planned adaptation with earlier crops (ealy spring, short winter, no freezing season)
  • More extreme events means lower adaptation of human selected species

A (nice) map of consequences

Evaluation of damages: method


\[ \Large \underbrace{alea}_{\color{red}{1}} \times \underbrace{exposition}_{\color{green}{2}} \times \underbrace{vulnerability}_{\color{blue}{3}} \times \underbrace{resilience}_{\color{orange}4} \]

  1. Forecast of aleas

  2. In depth inventory of exposition

  3. Assesment of vulnerability

  4. Understanding of resilience

Public policies can change 1 (mitigation), 2 (displacement) 3 (reinforcement) 4 (change in behaviour)

PESETA IV by JRC

So far, minimal damages; human life on the forefront

The end of Cheval Blanc

The rise of the Oceans

  • For now, below perception level
    • 50 mm
  • Acccording to IPCC 2007 : 18 to 59 cm in 2100
  • Since 2007:
    • Accelerated melting of ice
    • Revised estimation (IPCC 2014) up to 1.0 meter in 2100
    • In the long term, no more ice caps

The worse is to come

A video on Miami

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