CCCC.0: Sources of emissions

Xavier Timbeau

xavier.timbeau@sciencespo.fr

OFCE, Sciences Po Paris

Anissa Saumtally

anissa.saumtally@sciencespo.fr

OFCE, Sciences Po Paris

Presentation outline

• Sources of CO₂ emission
• Carbon footprint
• Distribution and Inequalities of emissions

Sources of CO₂ emission

CGP versus emissions

The relationship between growth in GDP and CO2 has loosened; it needs to be cut completely – Analysis - IEA

Country GDP and emissions

- Among a panel of 70 countries elasticity between income and emissions is .7   10% increase in GDP 7% increase in emission

Our World in Data CO₂ emissions per capita vs. GDP per capita, 2022

Kuznet vs Okun elasticities

• Making a distinction between cyclical reponse of emissions to GDP
• from long term reponse
• strong evidence in both case of a lower than 1 elasticity

Cohen, Gail, Joao Tovar Jalles, Prakash Loungani, Ricardo Marto, et Gewei Wang. « Decoupling of emissions and GDP: Evidence from aggregate and provincial Chinese data ». Energy Economics, Energy Finance 2017, 77 (1 janvier 2019): 105‑18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.03.030

On world data

Hubacek, Klaus, Giovanni Baiocchi, Kuishuang Feng, Raúl Muñoz Castillo, Laixiang Sun, et Jinjun Xue. « Global Carbon Inequality ». Energy, Ecology and Environment 2, nᵒ 6 (1 décembre 2017): 361‑69. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40974-017-0072-9.

Carbon footprint

Consumer versus producer approach

definition: Carbon footprint, amount of carbon dioxide emissions associated with all the activities of a person or other entity.

implies a notion of responsability: who is reponsible? the consumer (end of production) or the producer (means of production).

Carbon footprint, in IO acceptation, is the emissions of [GHG, CO₂] from the consumer point of view, including direct emissions (fuel for a car, heating), indirect emissions (from producing a good or a service, privatly or publicly provided) produced nationaly or imported Carbon footprints of all consumers add up to total emissions

A carbon footprint can be defined for other entities, loosing additivity (double and no count alike)

• OECD Greenhouse gaz datasets
• Lenzen, Manfred, et Joy Murray. « Conceptualising environmental responsibility ». Ecological Economics, Special Section: Ecological Distribution Conflicts, 70, n^o 2 (15 décembre 2010): 261‑70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.04.005.

Complexity of energy flows

Cullen, Jonathan M, & Allwood, Julian M. 2010a. The efficient use of energy: Tracing the global flow of energy from fuel to service. Energy Policy, 38(1), 75–81.

Final Uses

• When based on final usage, one can split CO2 emission to usage

  • Food accounts for around 15 to 20%
  • Shelter maintenance and operation for another 20%
  • Mobility is around 20%
  • Goods&services production are around 30%

• For a sharp reduction of emission, all usages have to reduce

• The case for food

  • All vegetarian/vegan could reduce food emissions by 30%
  • Fat and Amidon/Feculent are the most efficient diet
  • Pork/Poultry equivalent to fruits in terms of GHG/kcal

Vieux F., Soler L., Touazi D. and Darmon N., 2013. “High nutritional quality is not associated with low greenhouse gas emissions in self-selected diets of French adults 1 – 3”, (9). doi:10.3945/ajcn.112.035105.

Carbon footprint for France

• France : huge difference between inventory (residential, production) and footprint :::: columns

Carbon footprint for Europe (selection)

Distribution and Inequalities of emissions

Chancel and Piketty on CO₂ emission distribution

• very influential papers, plus databases

• based on a simple idea : we know (quite well) income distribution (for each centile) for a large sample of countries (WID)

  • by applying a monotonous transformation to income, approximation of emissions
  • mostly consumer based, ie 2 steps income consumption emissions
  • key elasticity are needed. Roughly, income to consumption from .9 (2015) to .6 (2021), consumtion to emission ~1
  • An important deviation (2021) from consumer pow: savings cumulate to wealth, onwership of productive capital induce responsability (1/3 of emissions)

World Inequality Database WID

Chancel Piketty 2015

• strong conclusion on who should contribute
• critics: emission elasticity to income of .9 is not convincing
• a billionaire earns 10,000 more than average guy, you can’t emit 100,000 tCO₂
• According to Lucas, Kate Perry just emitted 18 tCO₂ flying in space, 350 tCO₂ if indirect emissions are take in account
• High end life style could go to a few hundred’s tCO₂, hardly. $$10 to $$30 average guy.
• one hour helicopter a day (!) 150 tCO₂/y
• .9 elasticity to income overstate share of rich people

Chancel L. and Piketty T., 2015. “Carbon and inequality : from Kyoto to Paris”, (PSE working paper, November)

Chancel strikes back: 2021

• No more income elasticity but a consumption elasticity (.9), consumption to income elasticity near 0 for high income

• And imputation of capital investiment to owners! - savings are proportional to income (elasticity growing with income, of 1 with highest income, you can’t consume infinitly, and even there is a trap hidden there)

• No double count (because overall emissions are redistributed) but a high share of emissions are imputed to the wealthiest due to the share in wealth : 70% of the footprint of the latest decile is from wealth

• But, in contradiction with the consumer based approach where emissions are imputed, including capital cost

  • hybrid responsibility
  • consumers consume
  • producers choose place to produce, ways to produce, induce consumption on consumers (planned obsolescence, advertisment)
  • what about state regulations imposed or removed? who’s responsibility?
  • voter’s responsibility? but when not in a democracy? acceptation of authority means non responsibility?
  • thought experiment: what if one’s nationalize every means of production (and does not stop consuming) who is responsible?

Recap.

reference	scope	p90-100 CO2 emissions	p90-100 share of emissions
Piketty Chancel 2015	France	30.5/ind.	32%
Chancel 2021 (pub. 2022)	Europe	32-38/ind.
Theine et al 2022	Austria	38/household 17/ind.
Malliet 2020	France	38/household 18/ind.	16%
SEI Emissions inequality1	France (see for more)	16.5/ind.	26%

1. SEI methodolgy is a 1 elasticity from income to emission, with a lower threshold of minimal emission for lower income (1/3 of median income, equal to emission at that income, ie 1/3 of median emission) and a higher threshold (emissions can’t be more than 300 tCO₂/y/ind. Data for income is the same as Piketty&Chancel 2015 or Chancel 2021, however, no imputation of saving are made. Data are available for all countries/areas/regions.

Beyond income there are other factors

Elasticity (and convention) critical but there is more:

• the Cheval Blanc or Ferrari (Cheval Cabré) or effect
  • costs 10 to 100\(\times\) more than your average wine bottle or car or oil
  • implies for production the same quantity of CO₂ (if not less for organic oil)
  • despite higher emission/km, less km done with your ferrari
• Today imputation is made by dividing total emission by value, to get a tCO₂ content per €
  • by categories of product
  • household/individual emission based on (when made seriously) household survey (budget des familles in France), whith a tCO₂ per euro content (such as base Empreinte from Ademe) except for direct emissions (car fuel, shelter energy consumption)
  • works well only for … plane: from economy to business and even private jet, fare price reflects mostly fuel costs
  • for all other goods (80% of the carbon footprint), it is all wrong for distribution!
  • How to solve that? register all consumption volume (kg) for a large spectrum of qualities (cars, food, smartphones) and use mass measurment instead of value
  • Or establish a way to measure emission for each products, folowing the chain value (making a nuance between organic apple juice from your local producer from orange juice with high water consumption from Florida, boat transported)

Important references

Lenzen, Manfred, et Joy Murray. « Conceptualising environmental responsibility ». Ecological Economics, Special Section: Ecological Distribution Conflicts, 70, n^o 2 (15 décembre 2010): 261‑70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.04.005.

Mikayilov, Jeyhun I., Fakhri J. Hasanov, et Marzio Galeotti. « Decoupling of CO2 emissions and GDP: A time-varying cointegration approach ». Ecological Indicators 95 (1 décembre 2018): 615‑28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.07.051.

Freire-González, Jaume, Emilio Padilla Rosa, et Josep Ll Raymond. « World Economies’ Progress in Decoupling from CO2 Emissions ». Scientific Reports 14, nᵒ 1 (3 septembre 2024): 20480. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-71101-2.

The Long-Run Decoupling of Emissions and Output: Evidence from the Largest Emitters, IMF Working Paper 18/56

World Inequality Database WID (colead by L. Chancel)

Stockholm Environment Institute https://emissions-inequality.org/

OECD Greenhouse gaz datasets