Some Elements on Nuclear Energy

Xavier Timbeau
xavier.timbeau@sciencespo.fr

OFCE, Sciences Po Paris

Anissa Saumtally
anissa.saumtally@sciencespo.fr

OFCE, Sciences Po Paris

What do you know about nuclear energy?

Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)

LCOE is the ratio of the (discounted) production of electricity divided by the (discounted) sum of all costs (initial investment, operation and fuel cost, decommission)

From LCOE to final cost for households


Or industry


Levelized Cost of Energy

As it includes everything on the life cycle, comparison possible of different sources even with different lifespan

  • Sensitive to scenarios (price of fuels, labor, cost of capital)
  • Sensitive to important parameters like discount rate
    • A high discount rate favors immediate returns
    • A low discount rate favors long term returns
    • A high discount rate discounts highly distant costs (such as decommissioning)

The output of the formula represents power/heat generation cost per MWh

\[LCoE \&LCoH = \frac{\text{Total lifetime cost}}{\text{Total lifetime energy production} } = \frac{\sum_{t=1}^{n}\frac{I+FO\&M_t +VO\&M_t +F_t}{(1+r)^t} }{\sum_{t=1}^{n}\frac{E_t}{(1+r)^t} }\]

Where :

\(I\): Investment costs ; \(FO\&M_t\): Fixed operation and maintenance costs in the year \(t\) ; \(VO\&M_t\): Variable operation and maintenance costs in the year \(t\) ; \(F_t\): Fuel costs in the year \(t\) ; \(E_t\): Energy production in the year \(t\) ; \(r\): Discount rate ; \(n\): Expected asset lifetime

LCOE of main sources

LCOE from the US EIA

Nuclear Energy Cost

Capacity of Nuclear Energy

2024 2018 2018-2008
USA 103 GW 104 GW
France 64 GW 63 GW
China 58 GW 45 GW +36 GW
Japan 37 GW 37 GW
Russia 29 GW 29 GW +7.4 GW


  • Today, most new nuclear power plants are in China and are from a Russian design (AIE 2025)

  • Record of installed capacity will be reached in 2025 (high demand of electricity in the US/China)

  • 65 GW in China in 2025, more than France

LCOE evolution through time

RTE scenarii

Cost according to RTE

Including all sources, plus storage and demand management plus transportation

Nuclear Accident

Nuclear accident Fukushima 3/11/2011

  • 40m tsunami wave,
    • 3 reactors meltdowns of a quite old design power plant (1967 grid 1971)
  • 20 000 deaths estimated with the extrapolation (statistical) method
  • 4 direct deaths, 1 000 from evacuation stress
  • 330 000 evacuated (20km radius)
B€
Evacuation 50
Offsite decont. 25 to 51
Onsite Decont. 20
Emergency Power replacement 73
Loss of property 200

Forbes estimations - $500b+ estimated overall cost (direct and cleaning cost $15b, compensation $60b energy cost ($200b, may double), reconstruction cost $250b) (source Forbes)

Nuclear waste

Nuclear proliferation / technological lockdown

  • Initially nuclear reactors were developed to serve also nuclear bomb production
  • New nuclear technology are less related to military purpose
  • Current FR tech (EPR) locks in a specific technological path
    • Fast neutron tech could use 96% of latent energy in fr waste

Cost and delays of nuclear energy building cycle


  • Flamanville EPR (v1) is estimated to cost 12.1+6.7 (CC) b€ (from 3.3b€)
  • Planned for a grid output in 2012, expected mid 2024
    • output cost (selling price) reevaluated at 120€/MWh (initially 46€/MWh)
  • Olkiluoto 3 estimated at 11b€, 12 years delay (LCOE up to 90-140€/MWh)
  • Projected cost for future French EPR is 7 to 8 b€
  • Hinkley Point C : 90£/MWh
  • China EPR : cost around 7.5b€